Western-provided F-16 fighter jets could already be in Ukraine, Newsweek has been told, after Kyiv claimed a host of high-profile victories against Russian assets in the air and in the sea.
Ukraine's Western allies promised Kyiv the advanced U.S.-made F-16 jets months ago, but questions remained about exactly when the aircraft would take to Ukraine's skies.
Kyiv had clamored for the jets, which would boost Ukraine's ability to contest Russia's dominance in the skies and launch more strikes on key Russian targets. The F-16s are equipped with more modern avionics and radars and are designed to launch the NATO-standard weapons Ukraine has been using with its older, Soviet-era jets.
In recent days, Russian-aligned or anti-Ukrainian Telegram channels have speculated that Ukraine may have made use of the advanced jets to take out key Russian assets, although there has been no confirmation that Ukraine has received the jets.
A U.S. source told Newsweek on Wednesday that it was likely Ukraine had indeed received the first of the promised F-16s.
Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian military for comment via email.
In the past three weeks, Russia is reported to have lost eight jets—a blow to Moscow's air force.
On December 5, the Ukrainian military said it had shot down a Russian jet around Snake Island, a Black Sea outpost around 30 miles from Ukraine's coastline close to Romania.
Twelve days later, Ukrainian media reported that Moscow had lost an Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft after Kyiv attacked a Russian air base. Separately, Ukraine's air force said Moscow had shot down one of its own Su-25 tactical bomber jets on the same day.
On December 22, Ukraine said it had downed three more Russian Su-34 bombers, before Kyiv said on Christmas Eve that it had taken out a Russian Su-30 and an Su-34.
In the early hours of December 26, a Ukrainian missile strike damaged Russia's Novocherkassk landing ship in Crimea. Russian-aligned or anti-Ukrainian Telegram channels have since speculated that an F-16 was used to fire the cruise missiles at the Russian vessel, and what threat the jets in Ukraine's hands could pose to the Kremlin.
"This aircraft is integrated into the NATO command and control system, and that is the danger," one prominent Russian military blogger said on Tuesday.
Although not officially announced, it is not impossible that Ukraine has received at least an initial batch of F-16s. In mid-October, Ukraine debuted its ATACMS missiles in eye-catching assaults on Russian airbases that wiped out a slew of Russian helicopters. The attacks are thought to have caught Moscow by surprise, with the weapons confirmed after Ukraine first fired the missiles.
The same could be true of the long-awaited fast jets, and could offer Ukraine a much-needed advantage as the frontlines stagnate in the biting winter months.
"I hope the West has learned NOT to announce new weapons systems, as was done for the most part for the first 20 months of the war," said Daniel Rice, former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.
"Russian forces should learn 'the hard way' when Ukraine fields a new weapon," Rice, who is now president of American University Kyiv, told Newsweek.
On December 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Dutch government was starting preparations to deliver an initial batch of 18 F-16 jets for delivery to Ukraine.
The Dutch Defense Ministry separately said that Ukraine's personnel must be properly trained before the jets are transferred, as well as having "suitable infrastructure" in place. The jets may be modified, and "some of the aircraft require an overhaul," the Dutch government said.
The U.K. Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that the "first cohort" of Ukrainian pilots being trained by the U.K. military have completed basic training in the country, and are "now learning to fly F-16 fighter jets in Denmark, having completed a basic programme of training in the UK."
In early November, a number of F-16s arrived at a Romanian facility designed to train Ukrainian pilots, with others being trained at an air base in Arizona.
"Everything is going according to plan," Ukrainian air force spokesperson, Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said on Saturday, according to Ukrainian media.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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